Multiple Manifold Markets predictions as of July 10, 2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its...
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions as of July 10, 2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its exclusive position in EUV lithography.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold Markets predictions as of July 10, 2026 indicate strong consensus that ASML will maintain its exclusive position in EUV lithography. The market assigns 79.92% probability to ASML being the sole EUV producer through end of 2026 (source), 69.43% through end of 2027 (source), and 96.17% that ASML was a monopoly at end of 2024 (source). Only 16.7% believe China currently possesses an ASML EUV machine (source), and just 6.28% think ASML sold an EUV tool to China in 2023 (source). These figures suggest ASML's export controls remain effective. On the risk side, 50% probability the US will force ASML to halt China exports before 2029 (source) and 56.45% China develops domestic EUV by 2030 (source). Overall, the market sees ASML's competitive moat as robust in the near term.
What the sources said:
- 'Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%' (source)
- 'Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine?': YES=16.70%' (source)
- 'Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%' (source)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.