Prediction markets from Manifold indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV machines through...
Prediction markets from Manifold indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV machines through 2026-2027 (sources 2,5 with 80% and 69% probability).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction markets from Manifold indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV machines through 2026-2027 (sources 2,5 with 80% and 69% probability). However, there is a 56% probability that China will invent a domestic EUV machine by 2030 (source 7), and a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8). Additionally, there is a 16.7% chance that China already has an ASML EUV machine (source 1), and only a 6.3% chance that ASML sold an EUV machine to China in 2023 (source 10). Revenue growth expectations are high (source 3: 84% chance revenue increases every year for 5 years), and ASML's monopoly status in EUV is considered 96% certain by end of 2024 (source 9). The market also shows low probability of CEO legal issues (source 6: 11%) and a very low chance of $ASML reaching $1700 in 2024 (source 11: 1%).
What the sources said:
- Source 2: "Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%"
- Source 7: "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030? YES=56.45%"
- Source 8: "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.