Manifold prediction markets surveyed on 2026-08-07 paint a bifurcated picture for ASML: a stable monopoly and growth...

Manifold prediction markets surveyed on 2026-08-07 paint a bifurcated picture for ASML: a stable monopoly and growth base case, but meaningful geopolitical tail-risk. Participants put a 50.00% probability on the US forcing ASML to halt all exports to China before 2029 (Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?) and a 43.06% probability on the US cutting ASML off from Cymer, its key US light-source supplier, before 2030 (Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?).

The base case is more bullish: 83.77% believe revenue will increase every year for the next five years (Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?), 79.92% say ASML remains the sole EUV producer through end-2026 (Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?), 68.89% through end-2027 (Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?), and 96.17% believe ASML was already an EUV monopoly at end-2024 (Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?).

China exposure remains constrained: only 15.54% say China has an ASML EUV machine as of June 2026 (Does China have an ASML EUV machine?), and 6.28% believe ASML sold EUV to China in 2023 (Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China?). Meanwhile, the long-term competitive threat is significant: 56.45% expect China to build a domestic EUV equivalent by January 2030 (Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool?).

What the sources said:

• 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?' — YES=50.00% (https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo)
• 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?' — YES=43.06% (https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-cut-asml-off-cymer-befo)
• 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?' — YES=83.77% (https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y)
• 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' — YES=56.45% (https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio)

For AI-infra and semiconductor supply-chain monitoring, the actionable reading is that prediction-market participants see a coin-flip probability of severe US-imposed export restrictions on ASML's China business within three years, and a 43% probability of a Cymer supply-chain cutoff that would ripple through all EUV customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, Micron). Such outcomes would constrain China's advanced-node capacity (SMIC) and disrupt global leading-edge lithography supply. Confidence is low because the entire signal rests on one prediction-market platform; treat as an early tail-risk indicator rather than a confirmed plan.