Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-08 show market participants still assign high probability that ASML...
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-08 show market participants still assign high probability that ASML remains the world's only EUV producer through 2026 (79.9%) and 2027 (68.9%), and that ASML revenue grows each year for the next five years (83.8%).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-08 show market participants still assign high probability that ASML remains the world's only EUV producer through 2026 (79.9%) and 2027 (68.9%), and that ASML revenue grows each year for the next five years (83.8%). At the same time, a significant subset of the market prices in headline geopolitical risk: 50% chance the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029, 43% chance the US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030, and 56.5% chance China invents a domestic EUV tool by 2030. These are speculative probabilities, not confirmed events, but they provide a crowd-sourced view of the main tail risks facing ASML's semi-monopoly. A separate market shows only 6.3% chance ASML sold an EUV machine to China in 2023, and 15.5% chance China currently has an ASML EUV machine, underscoring that China still lacks EUV access.
What the sources said:
- Manifold 'Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?' — YES=79.92% (https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only)
- Manifold 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?' — YES=50.00% (https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo)
- Manifold 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' — YES=56.45% (https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio)
- Manifold 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?' — YES=83.77% (https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y)
The data suggests no immediate change, but the roughly coin-flip odds on US export restrictions and China domestic EUV represent material medium-term risks to ASML's export outlook. Spillover to TSMC, Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron exists because any shift in ASML's EUV shipments or US restrictions would affect advanced-node capacity worldwide; SMIC would be the primary Chinese beneficiary if export restrictions tighten.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.