As of 2026-08-10, Manifold prediction markets collectively indicate that ASML's EUV monopoly remains intact in the near...

As of 2026-08-10, Manifold prediction markets collectively indicate that ASML's EUV monopoly remains intact in the near term, while long-term regulatory and competitive risks are substantial. The market assigns a 79.92% probability that ASML stays the only EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1) and 68.89% through end-2027 (source 4). A 96.17% probability confirms ASML was the EUV monopoly by end-2024 (source 9). Revenue growth is expected to persist, with an 83.77% probability that ASML's revenue increases every year over the next five years (source 3).

However, the markets also price significant geopolitical threats. There is a 50% probability the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8) and a 43.06% probability the US will cut ASML off from Cymer, its key light-source supplier, before 2030 (source 5). A 56.45% probability is assigned to China inventing a domestic EUV machine by January 1, 2030 (source 7). Conversely, only 15.54% believe China already possesses an ASML EUV machine (source 2), and just 6.28% see evidence of ASML selling an EUV machine to China in 2023 (source 10).

What the sources said

• "Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?" — YES=79.92% (source 1)
• "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?" — YES=50.00% (source 8)
• "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?" — YES=56.45% (source 7)
• "Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?" — YES=83.77% (source 3)

These prediction-market probabilities are not actual events but reflect real-time sentiment. The neutral direction acknowledges that near-term monopoly strength is balanced by elevated long-term tail risks from export controls and Chinese domestic EUV development. Confidence is low because all sources are from a single prediction-market platform with no observed probability movement over time.