Prediction-market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-08-01 shows ASML still assigned a dominant EUV position through the...
Prediction-market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-08-01 shows ASML still assigned a dominant EUV position through the mid-2020s, while pricing in two significant long-range threats: a US-enforced halt of ASML exports to China and a Chinese domestic EUV alternative.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction-market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-08-01 shows ASML still assigned a dominant EUV position through the mid-2020s, while pricing in two significant long-range threats: a US-enforced halt of ASML exports to China and a Chinese domestic EUV alternative.
Across ten relevant Manifold markets, the implied forecast is stable: ASML is 96% to hold EUV monopoly through end-2024 (source), 80% through end-2026 (source) and 69% through end-2027 (source). Revenue growth in each of the next five years is bid to 84% (source).
Negative overhangs are visible but longer-dated: 50% probability the US forces ASML to halt China exports before 2029 (source), 43% probability the US cuts ASML off Cymer before 2030 (source), and 56% probability China builds a domestic EUV tool by 2030 (source). The market still sees near-zero odds that China already has an ASML EUV machine (15.5%, source) or that ASML sold EUV to China in 2023 (6.3%, source).
For AI-infra/semicap monitoring, this is a sentiment snapshot of ASML's monopoly pricing power and export-control overhang. The 50% market-implied probability of a forced China export halt by 2029 warrants tracking US policy; the 56% domestic-EUV odds by 2030 sets a competitive-clock benchmark. The CEO criminal-charge market (source) is negligible at 11%.
What the sources said
- Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until end of 2026?: "Manifold consensus ... YES=79.92%"
- Will ASML's revenue increase every year for next 5 years?: "Manifold consensus ... YES=83.77%"
- Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?: "Manifold consensus ... YES=50.00%"
- Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by Jan 1, 2030?: "Manifold consensus ... YES=56.45%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.