Manifold prediction-market snapshots as of Aug 4, 2026 reveal how traders are pricing ASML's franchise risk.
Manifold prediction-market snapshots as of Aug 4, 2026 reveal how traders are pricing ASML's franchise risk.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold prediction-market snapshots as of Aug 4, 2026 reveal how traders are pricing ASML's franchise risk. The market strongly believes ASML remains the sole EUV producer through at least 2026 (79.92% YES) and 2027 (68.89% YES), and that no EUV tool has been sold into China (93.72% NO on 2023 evidence) and China does not currently possess an ASML EUV machine (84.46% NO). Revenue growth every year for five years is priced at 83.77%.
The bearish/risk side is significant: a 50.00% market probability that the US forces ASML to halt all exports to China before 2029, and 43.06% odds that the US cuts ASML off from Cymer (its key light-source supplier) before 2030. Meanwhile, Chinese domestic EUV development is given 56.45% odds by Jan 1, 2030, implying a meaningful competitive threat to the monopoly.
These are consensus probabilities, not events, so confidence is low. Direction is neutral: the franchise/backlog outlook is positive, but geopolitical/export-restriction and China-catch-up risks are priced near coin-flip levels, which could weigh on ASML and its EUV customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) if realized. SMIC and other Chinese fabs would be directly affected by export policy shifts.
What the sources said
- Source 1: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%" (https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only)
- Source 4: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%" (https://manifold.markets/Jarom/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl)
- Source 5: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%" (https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-cut-asml-off-cymer-befo)
- Source 7: "Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%" (https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio)
- Source 8: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%" (https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.