Manifold Markets prediction markets as of 2026-08-07 collectively signal continued confidence in ASML's EUV dominance...

Manifold Markets prediction markets as of 2026-08-07 collectively signal continued confidence in ASML's EUV dominance and revenue trajectory, while pricing notable geopolitical tail risks. The markets show 79.92% probability ASML remains the world's only EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1) and 68.89% through end-2027 (source 4). Revenue growth is expected to persist: 83.77% probability revenue increases every year for the next 5 years (source 3). The probability that China currently possesses an ASML EUV machine is only 15.54% (source 2), suggesting export controls remain effective. However, bearish tail risks are priced: 56.45% that China builds a domestic EUV tool by 2030 (source 7), 50% the US forces ASML to halt China exports before 2029 (source 8), and 43.06% the US cuts ASML off from Cymer (light source) before 2030 (source 5). Leadership/criminal risk is low (11.23%) (source 6).

What the sources said:

• Source 1: 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?' — YES=79.92%.
• Source 3: 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?' — YES=83.77%.
• Source 7: 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' — YES=56.45%.
• Source 8: 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?' — YES=50.00%.

These are sentiment-based probabilities, not hard events; they reflect trader views on ASML's moat and regulatory exposure. For semiconductor supply chain watchers, the high revenue-growth expectation suggests sustained high-NA EUV demand from TSM, Intel, Samsung, and others, while the China domestic EUV probability signals long-term risk for ASML's monopoly.