Manifold Markets prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-12 aggregate trader beliefs on ASML's EUV monopoly and...
Manifold Markets prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-12 aggregate trader beliefs on ASML's EUV monopoly and geopolitical exposure.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold Markets prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-12 aggregate trader beliefs on ASML's EUV monopoly and geopolitical exposure. The clear takeaway: near-term monopoly is broadly expected (79.92% odds ASML remains sole EUV producer through 2026, 68.89% through 2027, and 83.77% odds revenue grows every year for five years), but tail risks are not negligible. Markets price a 50.00% chance the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 and a 43.06% chance the US cuts ASML's access to Cymer before 2030. Additionally, 56.45% odds are assigned to China developing a domestic EUV tool by January 2030, which would be the first credible challenge to ASML's monopoly in advanced lithography. No actual restriction, Cymer cutoff, or Chinese EUV machine has been announced; this is a sentiment/risk-pricing signal, so confidence is low. For AI-infra and semiconductor watchers, the actionable implication is to monitor Dutch/US export-policy shifts and Cymer supply-chain security as key swing factors for ASML's mid-decade outlook.
What the sources said
- 'Manifold consensus on "Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?": YES=79.92%' (source)
- 'Manifold consensus on "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?": YES=50.00%' (source)
- 'Manifold consensus on "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?": YES=56.45%' (source)
- 'Manifold consensus on "Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?": YES=43.06%' (source)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.