Prediction market snapshots from Manifold Markets as of 2026-07-26 indicate strong consensus that ASML will remain the...
Prediction market snapshots from Manifold Markets as of 2026-07-26 indicate strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole producer of EUV machines at least through 2026 (79.92% yes) and through 2027 (70.76% yes).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction market snapshots from Manifold Markets as of 2026-07-26 indicate strong consensus that ASML will remain the sole producer of EUV machines at least through 2026 (79.92% yes) and through 2027 (70.76% yes). The market also assigns a 96.17% chance to ASML being an EUV monopoly by end of 2024. Revenue growth is highly expected: 83.77% probability of year-over-year increases over the next five years. However, a notable risk appears: the market assigns a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029, and a 43.06% chance of the US cutting ASML off from Cymer before 2030. China's ability to invent a domestic EUV machine by 2030 is given a 56.45% probability, but current possession of an ASML EUV machine is only at 15.65% yes. These probabilities suggest the market views ASML's near-term monopoly and growth as very likely, but with significant regulatory risks that could materialize in the medium term. For ASML, bullish on monopoly and revenue, but bearish on export restrictions; overall direction set to up given the high confidence in revenue growth and monopoly persistence. Spillover entities including TSM (Taiwanese chipmaker reliant on EUV), SMIC (potential export ban target), and major customers INTC, SAMSUNG, NVDA are affected by any regulatory changes.
What the sources said
- Source 1: "Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?" — YES=79.92% at https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only
- Source 4: "Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?" — YES=70.76% at https://manifold.markets/Jarom/by-2027-will-asml-still-be-the-worl
- Source 8: "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?" — YES=50.00% at https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo
- Source 3: "Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?" — YES=83.77% at https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=70.76%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.