Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV...
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV lithography through at least 2026 (79.9% for 2026, 70.8% for 2027), and that China does not currently possess an ASML EUV machine (84.4% NO).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV lithography through at least 2026 (79.9% for 2026, 70.8% for 2027), and that China does not currently possess an ASML EUV machine (84.4% NO). However, the market sees a 50% chance the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029, and a 43% chance the US will cut off Cymer, a key supplier, before 2030. These geopolitical uncertainties offset the positive monopoly outlook. The probability of ASML revenue increasing every year for the next five years stands at 83.8%, suggesting investors are broadly bullish but aware of risks. The data does not reflect any single concrete event but rather a snapshot of aggregated expectations.
What the sources said:
- 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?' → YES=79.92% [source]
- 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine?' → YES=15.65% [source]
- 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?' → YES=50.00% [source]
- 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?' → YES=83.77% [source]
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=70.76%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.