Prediction markets on Manifold reveal mixed sentiment on ASML's future.
Prediction markets on Manifold reveal mixed sentiment on ASML's future.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction markets on Manifold reveal mixed sentiment on ASML's future. As of July 24, 2026, there is 96.17% confidence ASML will remain the sole EUV producer through 2024, and 79.92% through 2026, with 70.76% through 2027 (sources 1, 4, 9). Revenue growth conviction is high at 83.77% (source 3). However, downside risks loom: a 50% chance the US forces ASML to halt China exports by 2029 (source 8), and a 43% chance the US cuts off Cymer (source 5). Meanwhile, China's domestic EUV development probability stands at 56.45% by 2030 (source 7), while the chance of China already having an ASML EUV machine is only 15.65% (source 2). Short-term stock price optimism is low: only 1% chance of reaching $1700 in 2024 (source 11). These probabilities reflect a market that sees monopoly durability and revenue growth but is attuned to regulatory and competitive threats.
What the sources said:
- Source 9: 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?' → YES=96.17%.
- Source 3: 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?' → YES=83.77%.
- Source 8: 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?' → YES=50.00%.
- Source 11: 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?' → YES=1.00%.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=70.76%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.