Manifold Markets prediction-market consensus as of 2026-08-12 shows ASML's near-term EUV moat intact but a coin-flip...
Manifold Markets prediction-market consensus as of 2026-08-12 shows ASML's near-term EUV moat intact but a coin-flip geopolitical shock priced in.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold Markets prediction-market consensus as of 2026-08-12 shows ASML's near-term EUV moat intact but a coin-flip geopolitical shock priced in. The market puts 79.92% on ASML remaining the world's only EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1) and 68.89% through end-2027 (source 4); the historical question on EUV monopoly at end-2024 closed at 96.17% YES (source 9). Only 15.54% odds that China has an ASML EUV machine as of mid-2026 (source 2), consistent with the 6.28% consensus on 2023 EUV sales to China (source 10).
The sharply actionable item is policy risk: 50.00% YES that the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8) and 43.06% YES that the US cuts ASML off its Cymer light-source unit before 2030 (source 5) — either outcome would hit ASML's China revenue and ripple through TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and SMIC. Longer-dated competition: 56.45% that China fields a domestic EUV equivalent by Jan 1, 2030 (source 7). Offsetting this, 83.77% say ASML revenue grows every year for five years (source 3). Resolved markets confirm no EUV units reached China in 2023 (6.28%, source 10) and ASML shares never touched $1700 in 2024 (1.00%, source 11).
What the sources said
- Source 8: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%"
- Source 1: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%"
- Source 5: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%"
- Source 3: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.