On 2026-08-06, a cluster of Manifold prediction markets on ASML showed a nuanced risk profile for the EUV lithography...

On 2026-08-06, a cluster of Manifold prediction markets on ASML showed a nuanced risk profile for the EUV lithography monopolist. Markets were confident ASML would remain the only EUV producer through end-2026 (79.9%) and end-2027 (68.9%), and revenue would grow every year for five years (83.8%). But they also assigned material probability to geopolitical disruption: 50.0% the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source), 43.1% the US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source), and 56.5% China invents a domestic EUV tool by 2030 (source). Historical questions in the same cluster confirm ASML was the EUV monopoly by end-2024 (96.2%) and that no EUV sales to China occurred in 2023 (6.3% YES) (source, source). The low 15.5% probability that China possesses an ASML EUV machine as of June 2026 underscores the current monopoly (source).

Why it matters: ASML's EUV monopoly is a key chokepoint for AI infrastructure and advanced semiconductors. A forced export halt would directly impair ASML and ripple to customers like TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Chinese fabs such as SMIC. The prediction market data show that observers see roughly even odds of major US regulatory intervention before 2029 and a majority chance of a Chinese EUV alternative by 2030 – a competitive threat to ASML's long-term revenue growth.

What the sources said:

• "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?": YES=50.00% (source)
• "Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?": YES=43.06% (source)
• "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?": YES=56.45% (source)
• "Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?": YES=79.92% (source)