Manifold prediction markets as of Aug 1, 2026 price ASML's EUV monopoly as likely to hold through 2026 (79.92% source1)...
Manifold prediction markets as of Aug 1, 2026 price ASML's EUV monopoly as likely to hold through 2026 (79.92% source1) and 2027 (68.89% source4), with a 96.17% monopoly score source9 and 83.77% odds of revenue rising every year for five years source3.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold prediction markets as of Aug 1, 2026 price ASML's EUV monopoly as likely to hold through 2026 (79.92% source1) and 2027 (68.89% source4), with a 96.17% monopoly score source9 and 83.77% odds of revenue rising every year for five years source3. The geopolitical side is the sharper signal: 50.00% odds that the US forces ASML to halt all exports to China before 2029 source8, 43.06% odds the US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030 source5, and 56.45% odds China invents a domestic EUV tool by 2030 source7. Markets see China currently having an ASML EUV machine at only 15.54% source2 and evidence of 2023 EUV sales to China at 6.28% source10. These are probabilities, not resolved events, but they map a real risk curve: the same US policy loop that already restricts advanced tools could escalate again, hitting ASML revenue and Chinese fabs such as SMIC, while domestic EUV progress threatens the monopoly long term. An equity-market side bet on ASML reaching $1700 in 2024 is effectively dead (1.00% source11), so this is not a price-rally signal; it is a tail-risk monitor.
What the sources said
- "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? ... YES=50.00%" — source8
- "Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? ... YES=79.92%" — source1
- "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030? ... YES=56.45%" — source7
- "Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? ... YES=43.06%" — source5
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.