As of August 13, 2026, multiple Manifold Markets prediction markets offer a snapshot of sentiment on ASML's EUV...

As of August 13, 2026, multiple Manifold Markets prediction markets offer a snapshot of sentiment on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly and associated China risks. The consensus probabilities indicate strong confidence in ASML's continued EUV monopoly: 79.92% for remaining the only EUV producer through 2026 (source) and 68.89% through 2027 (source). Historical monopoly status is nearly certain at 96.17% for 2024 (source). Revenue growth expectations are high: 83.77% probability that ASML's revenue increases every year for the next five years (source).

However, geopolitical and competitive risks are priced. The probability of the US forcing ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 is exactly 50% (source), while the chance of the US cutting ASML off from Cymer (its DUV light source supplier) before 2030 is 43% (source). A domestic Chinese EUV alternative by 2030 is seen as more likely than not at 56.45% (source). Still, the market sees only a 15.54% chance that China currently possesses an ASML EUV machine (source).

These probabilities suggest that while ASML's near-term monopoly is intact, the medium-term risk of export restrictions and Chinese domestic competition is significant. For investors in AI-infra and semiconductor supply chains, this signals potential volatility in ASML's China exposure and the broader EUV equipment market.

What the sources said

• "Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%" (Manifold)
• "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%" (Manifold)
• "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030? YES=56.45%" (Manifold)
• "Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%" (Manifold)