Manifold Markets consensus data published 2026-08-06 shows traders still expect ASML to retain its EUV lithography...
Manifold Markets consensus data published 2026-08-06 shows traders still expect ASML to retain its EUV lithography monopoly in the medium term: 79.92% YES on sole EUV producer through end-2026 and 68.89% through 2027 (source1, source4).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold Markets consensus data published 2026-08-06 shows traders still expect ASML to retain its EUV lithography monopoly in the medium term: 79.92% YES on sole EUV producer through end-2026 and 68.89% through 2027 (source1, source4). Revenue growth is also expected, with 83.77% YES on ASML revenue increasing every year for the next five years (source3). This points to a structurally strong position for ASML in advanced-node exposure.
Offsetting that, traders assign meaningful probability to export-control shocks: 50.00% that the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source8) and 43.06% that the US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source5). China's ability to already source or replicate EUV is seen as limited: only 15.54% think China has an ASML EUV machine (source2), but 56.45% expect a domestic Chinese EUV tool by 2030 (source7). A Cymer cut would directly threaten ASML's light-source supply, while a China export halt would remove a key growth region. Legal/compliance risk is seen as low (11.23% on CEO charged, source6). No operational change was announced; this is a sentiment/risk signal only, based on a single prediction-market platform, so confidence is low.
What the sources said:
- Source 1: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%"
- Source 8: "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%"
- Source 7: "Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%"
- Source 3: "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.