As of August 1, 2026, Manifold Markets prediction markets reveal a striking split in expectations for ASML's EUV...

As of August 1, 2026, Manifold Markets prediction markets reveal a striking split in expectations for ASML's EUV lithography monopoly. Short-term, the markets are highly confident: ~80% probability ASML remains the only EUV producer through end-2026, slipping to ~69% through end-2027. However, the longer-dated questions price in substantial risks. The market sees a 56% chance China develops a domestic EUV lithography tool by January 1, 2030, and a 50% chance the US forces ASML to halt all exports to China before 2029. Against that, there is a 43% probability that the US will cut ASML off from Cymer, the critical supplier of EUV light sources, before 2030. A Cymer cutoff would directly disrupt ASML's ability to build EUV machines, impacting the entire advanced-node ecosystem from TSMC to Samsung, Intel, and memory makers. These probabilities, while not actual policy actions, represent aggregated investor and expert sentiment about the trajectory of ASML's strategic position. For AI-infra and semiconductor supply-chain watchers, the key takeaway is that ASML's near-term monopoly appears secure, but the market is pricing in meaningful geopolitical and competitive threats that could erode its dominance by the end of the decade.

What the sources said

• "Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%" — Manifold
• "Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? YES=43.06%" — Manifold
• "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030? YES=56.45%" — Manifold
• "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%" — Manifold