As of 2026-08-08, Manifold prediction markets reveal a mixed but risk-laden outlook for ASML's EUV monopoly.
As of 2026-08-08, Manifold prediction markets reveal a mixed but risk-laden outlook for ASML's EUV monopoly.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
As of 2026-08-08, Manifold prediction markets reveal a mixed but risk-laden outlook for ASML's EUV monopoly. Traders still assign high probabilities to ASML remaining the only EUV producer through 2026 (79.92%) and through 2027 (68.89%), and to revenue increasing every year for the next 5 years (83.77%). These support the bull case of continued moat and demand.
However, the same markets price substantial downside risks: exactly 50.00% that the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029, 43.06% that the US cuts ASML off Cymer before 2030, and 56.45% that China invents a domestic EUV machine by January 1, 2030. Meanwhile, the probability that China already has an ASML EUV machine is only 15.54%, and evidence of ASML selling EUV to China in 2023 is priced at 6.28%, suggesting the current China exposure is limited. A separate market shows $ASML never reached $1700 in 2024 (1.00% YES), a historical miss.
The net signal is neutral because the positive near-term monopoly/revenue expectations are offset by non-trivial geopolitical and competitive threats. This is a weak, sentiment-based indicator rather than a confirmed company event, so confidence is low. If these probabilities shift over the next month, they may foreshadow export-restriction or supply-chain actions affecting ASML and EUV-lithography customers.
What the sources said
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%" — https://manifold.markets/Jarom/will-asml-still-be-the-worlds-only
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%" — https://manifold.markets/0xseraphim/will-the-us-force-asml-to-halt-expo
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%" — https://manifold.markets/JamesTerry/will-china-invent-a-domestic-versio
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%" — https://manifold.markets/MattBrooks/will-asmls-revenue-increase-every-y
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.