Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-12 show elevated geopolitical risk around ASML's EUV export position.
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-12 show elevated geopolitical risk around ASML's EUV export position.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-12 show elevated geopolitical risk around ASML's EUV export position. The market assigns a 50% probability that the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8). It also prices a 43.06% chance the US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source 5), and a 56.45% chance China invents a domestic EUV equivalent by 2030 (source 7).
Bullish factors remain: 79.92% chance ASML stays the sole EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1), and 83.77% chance revenue grows annually for five years (source 3). The net signal is a risk tilt rather than a confirmed corporate event: no actual export ban or Cymer cutoff has been announced, but the consensus pricing suggests traders see a non-trivial chance of supply-chain/investment disruption. If such restrictions materialize, affected entities include TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and SMIC — TSMC/Samsung/Intel depend on ASML EUV for leading-edge logic, while SMIC would lose access or face delayed domestic alternatives.
_What the sources said:_
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%" — source 8
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%" — source 5
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%" — source 7
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.