As of 2026-08-07, a set of Manifold prediction markets on ASML's EUV franchise collectively flag rising perceived...
As of 2026-08-07, a set of Manifold prediction markets on ASML's EUV franchise collectively flag rising perceived regulatory and competitive risk, even as the company's revenue growth outlook stays strong.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
As of 2026-08-07, a set of Manifold prediction markets on ASML's EUV franchise collectively flag rising perceived regulatory and competitive risk, even as the company's revenue growth outlook stays strong. The most striking datapoint is a 50.00% consensus that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8). A related market gives 43.06% to the US cutting ASML off from Cymer, its light-source arm, before 2030 (source 5). China's own EUV effort is also seen as a live threat: 56.45% probability of a domestic ASML-equivalent EUV tool by January 1, 2030 (source 7).
These odds are speculative and single-platform, so confidence is low. They do not reflect any announced policy change. However, the market's view of ASML's monopoly durability is fading at the margin: the probability ASML remains the world's only EUV producer drops from 79.92% through end-2026 (source 1) to 68.89% through end-2027 (source 4). Meanwhile, only 15.54% believe China currently has an ASML EUV machine (source 2), and just 6.28% expect evidence of ASML selling an EUV tool to China in 2023 (source 10).
On the positive side, 83.77% expect ASML revenue to rise every year for the next five years (source 3), and 96.17% say ASML will be an EUV monopoly by end-2024 (source 9). These are largely backward-looking or aspirational. For ASML holders, the actionable takeaway is elevated tail-risk around export controls and Chinese substitution—both of which would pressure a stock already trading below the defunct $1,700 2024 target (1.00% probability, source 11). CEO crime risk is negligible at 11.23% (source 6).
What the sources said:
- "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?" — consensus YES=50.00% (source 8)
- "Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?" — consensus YES=43.06% (source 5)
- "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?" — consensus YES=56.45% (source 7)
- "Will ASML remain the world's only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?" — consensus YES=68.89% (source 4)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.