As of August 3, 2026, Manifold Markets prediction markets paint a mixed but generally confident picture of ASML's...

As of August 3, 2026, Manifold Markets prediction markets paint a mixed but generally confident picture of ASML's competitive moat. The market assigns a 79.92% probability that ASML remains the world's only EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1), and 68.89% through end-2027 (source 4). It also shows 96.17% confidence that ASML was a monopoly in EUV lithography by end-2024 (source 9), a resolved question. Revenue growth is expected to continue: 83.77% probability that ASML's revenue increases every year for the next five years (source 3). Conversely, a market on ASML reaching $1700 in 2024 has only 1% probability (source 11), reflecting a weak year for the stock.

Geopolitical risk is priced in. There is a 50.00% probability the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8), and a 43.06% chance the US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source 5). The market sees a 56.45% chance China invents a domestic EUV machine by January 1, 2030 (source 7), and only a 15.54% chance China currently has an ASML EUV machine (source 2). A separate market shows only 6.28% probability that ASML sold an EUV machine to China in 2023 (source 10), reinforcing the export-control environment. There is also an 11.23% probability that Peter Wennink is charged with a serious crime before 2030 (source 6), which appears to be noise.

These are prediction-market expectations, not actual company disclosures or news events. Still, they aggregate opinions of traders who put money on ASML's future, making this a weak but real-time sentiment signal. The net direction is neutral: strong monopoly and growth expectations are offset by meaningful tail risks around US export restrictions and Chinese domestic EUV development. For chipmakers like TSM, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron, ASML's continued EUV dominance preserves their leading-edge manufacturing roadmap, while any disruption to ASML would have immediate supply-chain implications.

What the sources said:

• "Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%" (source 1)
• "Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%" (source 3)
• "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%" (source 8)
• "Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023? YES=6.28%" (source 10)