Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets as of July 4, 2026, indicate elevated risk of future US export...
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets as of July 4, 2026, indicate elevated risk of future US export restrictions on ASML.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market outcomes on Manifold Markets as of July 4, 2026, indicate elevated risk of future US export restrictions on ASML. Notably, the market assigns a 47.56% probability that the US will cut off ASML's access to Cymer (a key EUV light source supplier) before 2030 (source 1), and a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8). These figures suggest significant geopolitical risk to ASML's supply chain and China revenue. On the bullish side, markets assign a 79.92% probability that ASML remains the sole EUV producer through end 2026 (source 3) and an 83.77% probability of annual revenue growth over five years (source 4). However, the relatively high probabilities for export restrictions outweigh the bullish sentiment, as any restriction would materially impact ASML's top line and technological edge.
What the sources said:
- Source 1: "Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? YES=47.56%" indicates nearly even odds of a critical supply chain disruption.
- Source 8: "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%" shows a coin-flip probability of losing China market access.
- Source 7: "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030? YES=56.45%" suggests a rising chance of ASML losing its monopoly position.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=47.56%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.