As of July 22, 2026, a series of prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate sustained confidence in...
As of July 22, 2026, a series of prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate sustained confidence in ASML's dominance in EUV lithography.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
As of July 22, 2026, a series of prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate sustained confidence in ASML's dominance in EUV lithography. The market assigns 96.17% probability that ASML remains a monopoly in EUV systems through end of 2024 (Source 9), 79.92% through end of 2026 (Source 1), and 70.76% through end of 2027 (Source 4). Additionally, the probability that ASML's revenue increases every year for the next 5 years stands at 83.77% (Source 3). On the downside, the market shows a 50% chance that the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (Source 8), and a 43.06% chance of ASML being cut off from Cymer before 2030 (Source 5). However, the probability that China develops a domestic EUV tool by 2030 is only 56.45% (Source 7). These probabilities suggest that ASML's competitive moat is perceived as durable, which is positive for ASML but carries medium-term regulatory risk. The data is from a single prediction market platform, hence low confidence.
What the sources said
- Source 9: 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024? YES=96.17%'
- Source 1: 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%'
- Source 3: 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%'
- Source 8: 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%'
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=70.76%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.