Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of July 27, 2026 collectively indicate a bullish outlook for ASML.
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of July 27, 2026 collectively indicate a bullish outlook for ASML.
confidence score
Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets as of July 27, 2026 collectively indicate a bullish outlook for ASML. Key signals include:
- Monopoly position: 79.92% probability ASML remains the only EUV producer through 2026, and 70.76% through 2027 (Sources: 2, 4).
- Revenue growth: 83.77% probability ASML's revenue increases every year for the next 5 years (Source: 3).
- Export controls: 50.00% probability the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029, and 43.06% of a Cymer cutoff before 2030 (Sources: 8, 5).
- China EUV: Only 15.54% probability China has an ASML EUV machine, and 6.28% that one was sold in 2023 (Sources: 1, 10).
- Domestic competition: 56.45% probability China invents a domestic EUV by 2030, but not imminent (Source: 7).
- Other: Low probabilities for CEO crime (11.23%) and ASML stock reaching $1700 in 2024 (1.00%) (Sources: 6, 11).
What the sources said:
- Source [3]: "Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%"
- Source [2]: "Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%"
- Source [1]: "Does China have an ASML EUV machine? YES=15.54%"
- Source [8]: "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%"
The consensus paints a picture of sustained ASML dominance, limited near-term Chinese capability, and manageable regulatory risk. This supports an upward bias for ASML's competitive position and financial outlook.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=70.76%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.