Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of July 16, 2026 indicate growing risks to ASML's dominant...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of July 16, 2026 indicate growing risks to ASML's dominant position in EUV lithography.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets as of July 16, 2026 indicate growing risks to ASML's dominant position in EUV lithography. The probability that China will invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV machine by January 1, 2030 is 56.45% (source 7), exceeding the 50% threshold. Simultaneously, the chance that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 is exactly 50% (source 8). Meanwhile, the market still sees an 83.77% probability that ASML's revenue will increase each year for the next five years (source 3), suggesting these risks are not yet fully reflected. The consensus that ASML will remain the sole EUV producer through 2026 is 79.92% (source 1), but drops to 69.43% for 2027 (source 5). These probabilities, while not definitive, point to a potential erosion of ASML's monopoly moat from both competitive (Chinese imitation) and regulatory (US export restrictions) angles. If realized, these scenarios could significantly impact ASML's revenue, market share, and the entire semiconductor supply chain, especially for advanced nodes.
What the sources said:
- Source 7: 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' Probability YES = 56.45%.
- Source 8: 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?' Probability YES = 50.00%.
- Source 4: 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?' Probability YES = 43.06%.
- Source 3: 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?' Probability YES = 83.77%.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.65%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.