Manifold prediction markets, as of August 2, 2026, price elevated geopolitical tail risks for ASML.
Manifold prediction markets, as of August 2, 2026, price elevated geopolitical tail risks for ASML.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold prediction markets, as of August 2, 2026, price elevated geopolitical tail risks for ASML. The market assigns a 43.06% probability that the US will cut ASML off from Cymer, its critical light-source supplier, before 2030 (source 5), and a 50.00% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8). A 56.45% probability is placed on China developing a domestic EUV lithography tool by 2030 (source 7), signalling a long-term competitive threat to ASML's monopoly. Despite this, near-term expectations remain robust: 79.92% odds ASML stays the sole EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1) and 83.77% odds revenue grows annually for five years (source 3). The net picture is constructive growth expectations layered with substantial downside risks from US-China export controls and technological competition. If these risks begin to materialize — through export-control rulings or supply-chain decisions — ASML's earnings and capex cycle could be directly hit. Spillover effects would be felt across leading-edge semiconductor manufacturers that depend on EUV and, conversely, Chinese fabs facing tightened access.
What the sources said
- Source 5: "Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? YES=43.06%"
- Source 8: "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%"
- Source 7: "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030? YES=56.45%"
- Source 3: "Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.