On June 23, 2026, TechTimes reported that China is mandating domestic chips for AI data centers with a $295 billion...

On June 23, 2026, TechTimes reported that China is mandating domestic chips for AI data centers with a $295 billion domestic chip mandate, effectively locking out Nvidia (Source 9). This policy could boost demand for SMIC's foundry services. However, prediction markets on Manifold as of June 23 indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC: probabilities of 18.8% by 2033 (Source 3), 4.61% by 2024 (Source 4), and 15.39% by 2028 (Source 5). Furthermore, the market gives only an 11% chance that SMIC will achieve 3nm before 2026 (Source 6), and a 55.85% probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (Source 7). While the mandate creates a captive market, SMIC's technological and talent challenges may limit its ability to capitalize, making the net impact uncertain.