Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate very low confidence in SMIC surpassing TSMC in semiconductor...

Multiple Manifold Markets predictions indicate very low confidence in SMIC surpassing TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing. As of 2026-06-26, the consensus for SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024 is only 4.61% (source 1), by 2028 it is 15.39% (source 3), and by 2033 it is 18.80% (source 2). Furthermore, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm node before 2026 is only 11.00% (source 4). These figures suggest the market assigns a very low likelihood of SMIC closing the gap with TSMC in the next several years. Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance that key technologist Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years (source 5), which could further hamper SMIC's progress. While prediction markets are not guarantees, they aggregate informed opinion and indicate a bearish outlook for SMIC's competitive position relative to TSMC. This signal is low confidence due to reliance on a single prediction platform and the speculative nature of long-term forecasts.