Multiple Manifold Markets prediction polls indicate extremely low market-implied probabilities for SMIC's technological...

Multiple Manifold Markets prediction polls indicate extremely low market-implied probabilities for SMIC's technological competitiveness. As of June 26, 2026, the consensus probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 is merely 4.61% (source), by 2028 it is 15.39% (source), and by 2033 it is 18.80% (source). The probability that SMIC achieves 3nm chip generation before 2026 stands at only 11.00% (source). Additionally, there is a 55.85% probability that Liang Mong-Song, a key SMIC executive, will leave the company within five years (source). While these are speculative market probabilities rather than hard confirmations, they collectively suggest a sustained gap between SMIC and TSMC in advanced node capability, and point to potential talent risk. Taken together, the sentiment implies continued competitive disadvantage for SMIC, reinforcing the view that China's foundry ambitions face steep technical and personnel hurdles.