Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve leading-edge nodes.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve leading-edge nodes. As of Source 1, the probability of SMIC manufacturing semiconductors that outcompete TSMC by end of 2024 is only 4.61%. For 2028 and 2033, probabilities are 15.39% and 18.80% respectively (Source 2, Source 3). Separately, SMIC's chance of achieving 3nm chip generation before 2026 stands at 11.00% (Source 4). Notably, there is a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years (Source 5). While prediction markets are not definitive news, these aggregated probabilities signal persistent bearish sentiment on SMIC's technological trajectory relative to TSMC.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.