Prediction market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-06-25 indicates only 11% chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026...
Prediction market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-06-25 indicates only 11% chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 (source 1). Odds of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024 are 4.61% (source 2), 15.39% by 2028 (source 3), and 18.80% by 2033 (source 4). Additionally, the probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years is 55.85% (source 5). These low probabilities suggest persistent technology gap and potential talent flight, pointing to a bearish outlook for SMIC's competitive standing in semiconductor manufacturing.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction market consensus on Manifold as of 2026-06-25 indicates only 11% chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 (source 1). Odds of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024 are 4.61% (source 2), 15.39% by 2028 (source 3), and 18.80% by 2033 (source 4). Additionally, the probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years is 55.85% (source 5). These low probabilities suggest persistent technology gap and potential talent flight, pointing to a bearish outlook for SMIC's competitive standing in semiconductor manufacturing.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.