Prediction markets on Manifold show low confidence that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.6%), 2028 (15.4%), or 2033...
Prediction markets on Manifold show low confidence that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.6%), 2028 (15.4%), or 2033 (18.8%) source. Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm chips before 2026 is only 11% source. These probabilities suggest the market doubts SMIC's ability to close the technology gap with TSMC. Furthermore, there is a 55.85% chance that key semiconductor engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years source, posing a talent retention risk. While prediction markets are not definitive evidence, they aggregate crowd sentiment and point to a negative outlook for SMIC's competitive position versus TSMC.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
0981.HK has already moved down -14% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Prediction markets on Manifold show low confidence that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.6%), 2028 (15.4%), or 2033 (18.8%) source. Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm chips before 2026 is only 11% source. These probabilities suggest the market doubts SMIC's ability to close the technology gap with TSMC. Furthermore, there is a 55.85% chance that key semiconductor engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years source, posing a talent retention risk. While prediction markets are not definitive evidence, they aggregate crowd sentiment and point to a negative outlook for SMIC's competitive position versus TSMC.
source data used
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.