Multiple prediction market odds on Manifold Markets suggest weak near-term competitive positioning for SMIC.
Multiple prediction market odds on Manifold Markets suggest weak near-term competitive positioning for SMIC. As of late June 2026, the probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by end of 2024 is only 4.61% Source 1, by end of 2028 is 15.39% Source 3, and by end of 2033 is 18.80% Source 2. Similarly, the chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 is only 11.00% Source 4. Additionally, there is a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years Source 5. These low probabilities imply market doubt about SMIC's ability to close the technology gap with TSMC, a negative signal for SMIC's competitive position. Spillover: TSMC appears relatively stronger.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
0981.HK has already moved down -14% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market odds on Manifold Markets suggest weak near-term competitive positioning for SMIC. As of late June 2026, the probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by end of 2024 is only 4.61% Source 1, by end of 2028 is 15.39% Source 3, and by end of 2033 is 18.80% Source 2. Similarly, the chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 is only 11.00% Source 4. Additionally, there is a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years Source 5. These low probabilities imply market doubt about SMIC's ability to close the technology gap with TSMC, a negative signal for SMIC's competitive position. Spillover: TSMC appears relatively stronger.
source data used
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
score history
| window | return | outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 30d | — | pending |