Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate low probability that SMIC will surpass TSMC or reach 3nm process...
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate low probability that SMIC will surpass TSMC or reach 3nm process technology. As of June 2026, the market assigns only 4.61% chance SMIC outcompetes TSMC by end of 2024 (source), 15.39% by 2028 (source), and 18.80% by 2033 (source). The probability SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 stands at 11% (source). Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years (source). These speculative odds reflect persistent doubts about SMIC's technological competitiveness and talent retention, signaling a negative outlook for the company's ability to close the gap with TSMC.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate low probability that SMIC will surpass TSMC or reach 3nm process technology. As of June 2026, the market assigns only 4.61% chance SMIC outcompetes TSMC by end of 2024 (source), 15.39% by 2028 (source), and 18.80% by 2033 (source). The probability SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 stands at 11% (source). Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years (source). These speculative odds reflect persistent doubts about SMIC's technological competitiveness and talent retention, signaling a negative outlook for the company's ability to close the gap with TSMC.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.