Multiple Manifold Markets prediction markets indicate extremely low probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC...
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction markets indicate extremely low probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.61% Source 1) or 2028 (15.39% Source 3).
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction markets indicate extremely low probability that China's SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 (4.61% Source 1) or 2028 (15.39% Source 3). Similarly, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11% Source 4. Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years Source 5. These market-implied odds suggest a persistent technology gap widening between SMIC and TSMC, reducing SMIC's competitive position in advanced nodes. While prediction markets are speculative, the consensus reflects ongoing structural challenges for SMIC under export restrictions and limited access to advanced equipment. This signal points to continued downward pressure on SMIC's relative competitiveness.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.