Prediction market odds on Manifold indicate persistent skepticism about SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve...

Prediction market odds on Manifold indicate persistent skepticism about SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve advanced nodes. As of June 28, 2026, the market gives only a 4.61% chance that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by end of 2024 (source), 15.39% by 2028 (source), and 18.80% by 2033 (source). Additionally, the probability SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 is just 11% (source). A separate market shows a 55.85% chance that key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC for another semiconductor company within 5 years (source). While prediction markets are speculative, these consistently low probabilities reflect weak expectations for SMIC's technological progress, suggesting ongoing competitive disadvantage versus TSMC and limited near-term capability to reach leading-edge nodes. This could impact SMIC's ability to win advanced customers and maintain relevance in cutting-edge chips.