Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate a consensus that SMIC is unlikely to surpass TSMC in...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate a consensus that SMIC is unlikely to surpass TSMC in manufacturing competitiveness or achieve 3nm node in the near term. As of June 2026, the probability that SMIC outcompetes TSMC by 2024 is only 4.61% (source), by 2028 is 15.39% (source), and by 2033 is 18.80% (source). Furthermore, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is 11% (source). Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years (source), which could further hinder progress. These collective signals point to a down directional outlook for SMIC's competitive position relative to TSMC, albeit with low confidence given the speculative nature of prediction markets.