Multiple Manifold markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing.
Multiple Manifold markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing. The probability of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2024 is 4.6% (source), by 2028 is 15.4% (source), by 2033 is 18.8% (source), and achieving 3nm by 2026 is 11% (source). These low probabilities suggest persistent technological gaps for SMIC, implying a bearish outlook for its competitive position relative to TSMC and other advanced foundries.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold markets indicate low probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC in semiconductor manufacturing. The probability of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2024 is 4.6% (source), by 2028 is 15.4% (source), by 2033 is 18.8% (source), and achieving 3nm by 2026 is 11% (source). These low probabilities suggest persistent technological gaps for SMIC, implying a bearish outlook for its competitive position relative to TSMC and other advanced foundries.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.