Prediction markets indicate growing doubts about SMIC's competitive position and talent retention.

Prediction markets indicate growing doubts about SMIC's competitive position and talent retention. As of June 2026, Manifold markets show an 18.8% probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2033 (source), a 15.39% probability by 2028 (source), and only 4.61% by 2024 (source). The probability of SMIC reaching 3nm before 2026 sits at 11% (source). Most strikingly, the probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC for another semiconductor company within 5 years is 55.85% (source), signaling acute talent retention risk. These low technology roadmap probabilities combined with high executive churn odds suggest SMIC's ability to close the gap with TSMC is highly uncertain, and talent flight could further impair its R&D trajectory. While based on betting markets rather than official disclosures, the consensus provides a weak signal of negative sentiment around SMIC's future competitiveness.