Prediction markets on Manifold show very low probabilities for SMIC achieving key technology milestones.

Prediction markets on Manifold show very low probabilities for SMIC achieving key technology milestones. As of June 28, 2026, the market gives only a 4.61% chance that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by end of 2024 (source), and 15-18% for 2028 and 2033 (source, source). The probability of SMIC reaching 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source). Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC within the next five years (source). These odds indicate significant market skepticism around SMIC's technological progress and talent retention, posing a downside risk for SMIC. A failure to advance could reinforce TSMC's dominance and benefit its customers (NVDA, AMD, AAPL).