Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low consensus probabilities for SMIC achieving key technological milestones.

Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low consensus probabilities for SMIC achieving key technological milestones. As of June 28, 2026, the probability of SMIC manufacturing semiconductors that outcompete TSMC by end of 2024 is 4.61% (source), by end of 2028 is 15.39% (source), and by end of 2033 is 18.80% (source). Separately, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm chip generation before 2026 is 11.00% (source). Additionally, there is a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC within 5 years (source). Collectively, these market signals suggest growing doubt about SMIC's ability to close the technology gap with TSMC, indicating a negative outlook for its competitive position.