Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC.
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC. As of the latest data, the probability of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2024 is only 4.61% [source 1], by 2028 is 15.39% [source 3], and by 2033 is 18.80% [source 2]. Additionally, the chance of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 stands at 11.00% [source 4]. The market also suggests a 55.85% probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC within five years [source 5]. These probabilities, while speculative, reflect a negative consensus on SMIC's technological trajectory compared to TSMC, implying limited near-term competitive threat to TSMC's leadership.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction markets on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC. As of the latest data, the probability of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2024 is only 4.61% [source 1], by 2028 is 15.39% [source 3], and by 2033 is 18.80% [source 2]. Additionally, the chance of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 stands at 11.00% [source 4]. The market also suggests a 55.85% probability that key engineer Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC within five years [source 5]. These probabilities, while speculative, reflect a negative consensus on SMIC's technological trajectory compared to TSMC, implying limited near-term competitive threat to TSMC's leadership.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.