Manifold Markets prediction markets reflect deep skepticism about SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC.

Manifold Markets prediction markets reflect deep skepticism about SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC. As of June 24, 2026, the consensus probability that SMIC will manufacture semiconductors outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024 is only 4.61% (source: Manifold). For end of 2028, it rises to 15.39% (source: Manifold), and for end of 2033, 18.80% (source: Manifold). Separately, the chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 is 11% (source: Manifold). Additionally, a 55.85% probability is assigned to key engineer Liang Mong-Song leaving SMIC within 5 years (source: Manifold. These low probabilities indicate sustained technology gap vs TSMC and potential talent flight, negative for SMIC's competitive position in advanced nodes. Spillover: TSMC maintains leadership; NVIDIA may benefit if TSMC remains the advanced node leader.