Multiple Manifold Markets prediction contracts uploaded on 2026-07-23 show extremely high consensus probabilities for...
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction contracts uploaded on 2026-07-23 show extremely high consensus probabilities for TSMC's market capitalization milestones.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
TSM has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple Manifold Markets prediction contracts uploaded on 2026-07-23 show extremely high consensus probabilities for TSMC's market capitalization milestones. Source 12 indicates a 99% probability that TSMC will have a market cap of $1 trillion or more by end of 2025 (link). Source 2 shows a 94% probability for the same milestone by end of 2026 (link). Source 3 reveals a 77% probability for a $2 trillion market cap by end of 2026 (link). Source 7 indicates a 59% chance TSMC will dominate semiconductor manufacturing for the next 10 years (link). These consensus probabilities reflect strong market sentiment that TSMC will continue its leadership and valuation growth, benefiting customers like NVDA, AMD, AAPL, AVGO, and QCOM, while pressuring competitors INTC and SMIC. Although based solely on prediction market data rather than official filings, the alignment of multiple high-probability outcomes suggests a directional upshift in expected TSMC market cap.
What the sources said:
- Source 12: "YES=99.00%" for >$1T by end of 2025.
- Source 2: "YES=94.04%" for >$1T by end of 2026.
- Source 3: "YES=77.38%" for >$2T by end of 2026.
- Source 7: "YES=58.58%" for dominating semiconductor manufacturing for next 10 years.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.