markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=33.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=62.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=10.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?': YES=6.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=6.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=82.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=66.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis': YES=81.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=3.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?': YES=66.57%

Manifold consensus on '1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.': YES=80.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=42.35%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027?': YES=79.93%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI ChatGPT Astra publicly available in September 2026?': YES=47.62%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2028?': YES=93.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=6.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?': YES=18.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?': YES=8.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=77.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?': YES=8.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%

Manifold consensus on 'AI chip to 1 GW in 100 days before 2032?': YES=62.40%

Manifold consensus on 'China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?': YES=52.33%

Manifold consensus on 'US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026': YES=49.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?': YES=80.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?': YES=25.45%