markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-07-03Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=12.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=96.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-03Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-03Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-03Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-03Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-03New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-03New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%
market:manifold- 2026-07-03Will we get new Stargate before 2025?
Manifold consensus on 'Will we get new Stargate before 2025?': YES=1.00%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?': YES=1.00%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%
MSFTmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?': YES=4.78%
market:manifold- 2026-07-03Stargate Argentina built before 2028?
Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Argentina built before 2028?': YES=36.06%
market:manifold - 2026-07-03Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?': YES=7.05%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Project to add a new major technology partner by EOY?': YES=60.60%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?': YES=20.00%
MSFTmarket:manifold- 2026-07-03Will a new live-action Stargate movie/TV-series start filming before Stargate invests $500B in AI?
Manifold consensus on 'Will a new live-action Stargate movie/TV-series start filming before Stargate invests $500B in AI?': YES=64.00%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025': YES=12.68%
market:manifold- 2026-07-03Will the Stargate project work?
Manifold consensus on 'Will the Stargate project work?': YES=56.66%
market:manifold - 2026-07-03Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?
Manifold consensus on 'Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?': YES=29.42%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=10.83%
OPENAImarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?': YES=7.42%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 4 quarters by the end of 2025?': YES=90.73%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-07-03Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?
Manifold consensus on 'Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?': YES=45.00%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2027?': YES=2.00%
SCALEAImarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?': YES=39.46%
AMZNmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?': YES=16.74%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will data center technicians still be necessary in 2027?': YES=92.08%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?': YES=74.12%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?': YES=36.36%
MSFTmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?': YES=7.76%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?': YES=21.69%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will the pope bless a data center before 2026?': YES=3.71%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?': YES=38.81%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?': YES=32.00%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?': YES=65.00%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center?': YES=17.48%
market:manifold- 2026-07-03Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?': YES=41.19%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?': YES=34.00%
market:manifold- 2026-07-03Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?': YES=44.04%
market:manifold - 2026-07-03Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?
Manifold consensus on 'Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?': YES=6.81%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%
ASMLmarket:manifold- 2026-07-03Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?
Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%
ASMLmarket:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%
ASMLmarket:manifold