markets

Manifold consensus on 'Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?': YES=68.30%

Manifold consensus on 'Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?': YES=44.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=11.65%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=17.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=53.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=69.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=65.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=4.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=65.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=18.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?': YES=12.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASI be developed 5+ years after AGI?': YES=41.88%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will it be proven that AGI or ASI is not possible within the known laws of physics?': YES=2.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?': YES=13.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=52.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=54.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?': YES=23.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=95.04%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=43.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=84.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a "Search" feature that replaces ChatGPT's default interface before July 1, 2026?': YES=29.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?': YES=57.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?': YES=13.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?': YES=75.67%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI beats Grok on arena.ai before June?': YES=84.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?': YES=92.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI officially launch any new publicly named AI model before May 1, 2026?': YES=98.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?': YES=15.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?': YES=17.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=15.33%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=41.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%