markets

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?': YES=72.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts': YES=69.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=65.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=4.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=54.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?': YES=13.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=48.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=16.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?': YES=94.21%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?': YES=11.44%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026': YES=18.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?': YES=97.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=28.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=95.04%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=43.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=15.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon win his case against OpenAI?': YES=57.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?': YES=15.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=88.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=36.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?': YES=92.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest by the end of 2026?': YES=9.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?': YES=14.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Musk–OpenAI lawsuit go to trial?': YES=97.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?': YES=14.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?': YES=72.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=53.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=59.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%