markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?': YES=87.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?': YES=4.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?': YES=32.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?': YES=25.71%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=74.00%

Manifold consensus on 'By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?': YES=55.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD': YES=22.72%

Manifold consensus on 'AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=65.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=4.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?': YES=33.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2035?': YES=54.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?': YES=51.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=33.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2033?': YES=49.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=50.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2031?': YES=38.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?': YES=38.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?': YES=17.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=25.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=47.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=28.07%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Stock': YES=65.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=60.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon win his case against OpenAI?': YES=46.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be worth less than $250 billion (in Jan 2025 dollars) at any point before 2030?': YES=12.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?': YES=79.63%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030': YES=33.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Reach $100B in total profit by the end of 2027?': YES=23.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be one of the top 5 most valuable companies before 2040?': YES=37.94%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=74.75%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI flips the script and buys or takes over Microsoft by mid 2031': YES=7.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?': YES=83.18%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?': YES=86.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?': YES=28.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be acquired by 2040?': YES=26.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI worth more than Microsoft by mid 2029': YES=20.31%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?': YES=9.24%